As official National and Provincial election results approach
the midway mark, projection programs have a clearer view of the final outcome.
Following South Africa’s sixth democratic Election Day, the Electoral Commission (IEC) has embarked on its final primary process; tallying the votes. Shortly after midday, the Commission announced that while it had successfully counted all ballot papers marked on 8 May, the time-consuming capturing process – whereby votes are officially transcribed and relayed – was still underway.
Despite the arduous journey ahead, the IEC’s initial legwork
has provided statisticians with some interesting numbers to digest.
Earlier today, we looked at an election results prediction program, developed and finessed by Dr Oloff de Wet in conjunction with Pretoria FM. While earlier projections were based off 16% of votes counted by the IEC, a greater number of votes counted and captured, give sturdier credibility to De Wet’s statistical model.
Election results: Provincial projections
A greater volume of verified votes has kicked the projection
program up a gear, allowing the algorithm to forecast outcomes on a provincial
level. Here are the projections of this year’s provincial election results.
Election results: National projections
The projection program crunched the national numbers earlier this morning and came out with some interesting denotations, none so much as the Freedom Front Plus’ (VF) strong electoral showing. Earlier predictions also showed losses for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA), while the EFF enjoyed news of powerful gains.
The IEC’s midday progress has proved invaluable, revising original projections to more accurately reflect the final outcome on a national level.
Veteran journalist, Jan Jan Joubert, who has been working closely with De Wet and his team of experts, says that while the final picture is becoming a lot clearer, there is still room for discrepancies. Joubert said:
“We are satisfied that the current results are feeding into our projected model ever more smoothly. It does, however, depend on the predictability of human nature, which is not an exact science, so keep checking our updates.”