Mon. Dec 16th, 2019

Election results at halfway: ANC set to record lowest-ever vote share

ANC votesDespite being on course for a majority government, the ANC are forecast to set an unwanted record, as we hit the halfway mark of counting the election results.

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Nobody said this was going to be an easy campaign for the ANC, and at the halfway point of totalling the votes, they’re confronting some harsh realities. The ruling party still look like they’ll keep their national majority, but they are set to lose seats in the National Assembly, and the threat of a coalition in Gauteng is now looming.

You can follow the results as they come in here, via our live blog.

2019 Elections: Gauteng in the balance

Early indications showed the province would remain under ANC control by a whisker, clinging on to their majority with 51%. But as more results from DA-controlled metropolitan areas roll in, that slender advantage is slowly being etched away.

The Western Cape also looks like it will stay under DA control, with a promised ANC renaissance in the province failing to come to fruition at this point. However, the other seven provinces of South Africa look set to back the ANC – even if their support is wobbling a touch in KwaZulu-Natal.

With 30% of the vote calculated in the province, the ANC are nine points short of the 64% they recorded there in 2014.

Elections 2019 – how many votes have the ANC got?

As of 16:30, 50% of the votes have now been counted across South Africa. There’s no official indication of what time the 100% mark will be reached, but even then, we will have to wait for official confirmation from the IEC on when the last vote has been registered.

Although, they are confident that “90% of the vote” will be received by 22:00 on Thursday.

Given the myriad of issues raised on Election Day, this process won’t be without its complications. The DA claim they’ve made a whopping 2 000 complaints to the IEC, mainly regarding concerns over voter security.

ANC vote share from 1994 – 2019

But this is the what’s happening on a national scale, as the figurative half-time whistle blows. The ANC are on course for 56.77% of the ballot – which would be their lowest share of the voter percentage in South Africa’s democratic history.

The potential for a lower voter turnout this year – said to be 65% – has also raised the possibility of them getting their lowest ever total amount of votes. However, it is too early to predict if that will become a reality.

  • 1999: 66% of the ballot from 16.2 million voters nationally.
  • 2004: 69% of the ballot from 15.8 million voters nationally.
  • 2009: 64.5% of the ballot from 17.9 million voters nationally.
  • 2014: 62% of the ballot from 18.6 million voters nationally.

Why have the ANC lost support?

It seems the toxic legacy of Jacob Zuma has had a long-lasting effect on the party. Cyril Ramaphosa’s promised new dawn is yet to materialise, and many party officials who were complicit to Msholozi’s corrupt administration remain in power. Recent service delivery protests in townships have also damaged the ANC brand.

They’re projected failure to capture more than 60% of the vote will no doubt lead to widespread introspection. Guptagate, Bosasa and the failing SOEs of South Africa have effectively shaved 5% off their voter numbers.

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