Mon. May 20th, 2019

Election results 2019: Using accurate projection programs to keep count

Election results prediction programmeThese are not predictions – they are statistical projections based on results already received.

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Pretoria FM, in collaboration with TheSouthAfrican.com, has developed a system that will be able to accurately project this year’s final election results soon after the first results have been received.

We will also reflect all results as they are received.

The projections will be available on the Pretoria FM and
TheSouthAfrican.com websites from Wednesday night.

Election results projection programme explained

The system developer is mathematician Dr Oloff de Wet. He
designed the Pretoria FM projection program in collaboration with other
experts.

In addition to his talent for, and interest in statistics,
Dr De Wet and his brother, Dr Muir de Wet, built a yacht with which they are
currently sailing around the world.

The yacht, named “Ongemak” (“Discomfort”), is currently moored in the South American state of Suriname while the De Wet brothers are in South Africa to work on this year’s election projections.

These are not predictions – they are statistical projections
based on results already received. The method is based on the exact voting
history of each of the country’s nearly 23 000 polling stations, projected onto
the results of this year’s election as soon as a polling station’s result is
received from the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC).

Along with the polling station’s relative weight (in number
of voters) in relation to the ultimate total and taking into account the
percentage poll, the change in support for political parties is calibrated to obtain
a projected final result.

“In this way we are going to bring our current and projected final vote for each provincial election and the nationally-updated regular election to our readers and listeners as soon as we receive a fairly representative group of results.”

Pretoria FM’s editor-in-chief of news and actuality, Mr James Kemp.

Here’s how to stay up to date

The goal is to get the right election results for five of the biggest parties – the ANC, DA, EFF, IFP and FF Plus – as fast and accurate as possible to our readers and listeners. The objective and the preliminary indication is that the model works so well that we hope to be faster and more accurate than all competitors in projecting the correct final results.

To stay updated about the election results, tune in to the broadcasts of Pretoria FM on radio as well as on DStv’s audio channel 887, or visit the website www.pretoriafm.co.za as well as all the social media platforms of Pretoria FM.

We are excited to provide South Africans with the best
reporting and forecasts available.

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