Tue. Oct 22nd, 2019

ANC vs DA vs EFF: Biggest victories and defeats for each party so far

ANC DA EFFWith around a third of the votes left to count, we’re having a look at the polls and charting the success stories and own goals from the ANC, DA and EFF.

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We are crawling towards the finish line on Friday. The end is in sight, but we’re moving towards it at a glacial pace. The IEC said on Thursday that they would have “90%” of the results in by 22:00 last night. On Friday morning, we’re only at the 66% mark. As it stands, the ANC, DA and EFF still have some scores to settle.

Yet if you chose to see the cup as two-thirds full rather than a third empty, you can still put together a solid picture of what South Africa’s future will look like. Voting has almost wrapped up in some provinces, but one of the key battlegrounds of this election is lagging behind.

Only half the votes in Gauteng have been counted as of Friday morning, and with the ANC’s coalition hanging by a thread, it’s still impossible to call who has had the best time of it in the province. As of 8:30, the ANC holds 50.52% of the vote and they’re trailed by the DA, on 27.4%.

On a national level, things are pretty much already sorted:

  1. ANC – 57.24%
  2. DA – 21.79%
  3. EFF – 10.09%

Provincial party performance

Here’s a quick look at where each major party experienced the most joy and the areas which the three big players ended up under-performing.

ANC vs DA vs EFF: Wins and losses at the 2019 Elections

ANC performance at the 2019 Elections

Success: Eastern Cape

With seven of the nine provinces as good as sewn-up by the ANC, you can take your pick. However, the ruling party have matched their performance levels of 2014 in the Eastern Cape, taking almost 70% of the vote. More than 90% of all ballots have been counted in the province, and the ANC have trounced the opposition once more.

They’ve also taken 75% of the vote in Limpopo, and although this is their highest provincial vote share, they’ve lost a bit of ground to the EFF over the past few years, and 40% of votes are still to be counted.

Failure: Western Cape

However, their promise to shake things up in the Western Cape ended miserably. Fikile Mbalula, the ANC’s head of elections, has conceded the province to the DA already.

EFF performance at the 2019 Elections

Success: Mpumalanga

The thing with the EFF is that they’ve shown growth in almost every province. Even in the Western Cape, they’ve jumped from 2% to 4% of the vote. Their “nothing-to-lose” status has worked in their favour, and it looks as if they’ve pulled off a big result in Mpumalanga.

The red berets are on the verge of becoming the official opposition in MP for the first time, taking the reigns from the DA. On Friday morning, the EFF held a 3% lead over their opponents with just 12% of the vote left to count.

Failure: Free State

Perhaps the only blot on the copybook would be in the Free State. They’re about 20 000 votes shorts of their total from 2014, suggesting they haven’t kicked on in the province as they have in other places. At the time of writing, two-thirds of the vote had been counted.

DA performance at the 2019 Elections

Success: Western Cape

The national vote has been a rollercoaster ride for the party. They were polling over 25% for much of Thursday, but they’ve now dropped to 21.75%. Despite the nervy wait for Parliamentary seats, the Blues have managed to complete one of their most important missions by retaining the Western Cape.

Their majority has been reduced, but the DA have kept hold of the one province they control with over 54% of the vote. Less than 5% of the ballots are left to be counted and the party have claimed more than one million votes in the province.

Failure: Potentially KwaZulu-Natal, others

Things are precariously perched in KwaZulu-Natal, and the picture is a cause for concern to the DA. Just like Mpumalanga, their position as the official opposition is under major threat. IFP currently sit in second-place on 17% behind the ANC, with the DA trailing on 15.3%.

Of the wards left to be accounted for – about 35% of them – none of them were under DA rule in 2014. This one could still flip, but if current projections hold out, the IFP are on course to snatch second place.

The DA’s support has also dwindled in Limpopo and North West. While not a major loss, the EFF have been able to establish more daylight between themselves are their rivals in these two regions.

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