After months of campaigning and intensifying their efforts to make Gauteng a DA-run province, the official opposition look like they have made serious inroads into the ANC’s once-comfortable majority.
Mmusi Maimane and his party have been buoyed by data from two sets of polls on Tuesday: Official data released by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) suggests that the DA may even beat their political nemeses at a provincial level if voter turnout stays relatively low:
IRR findings on the race for Gauteng:
• The ANC currently stands at 42.8% on the provincial ballot, up 1.2 percentage points from February (41.6%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 39%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 39%.
• The DA currently stands at 31.9% on the provincial ballot, down 0.5 percentage points from February (32.4%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 39%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it increases to 40%.
• The EFF currently stands at 13.0% on the provincial ballot, down 5.2 percentage points from February (18.2%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 12%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 12%.
DA poll shows GP “within touching distance”
Meanwhile, the DA’s own internal polling suggests that the bridge has significantly narrowed between themselves and the ANC in Gauteng. Their data – shared by News24 – shows a dramatic eight-point swing over the past month, to bring the Blues within touching distance of the ruling party:
- ANC: On 44%, down from 48%
- DA: On 38%, up from 34%
- EFF On 10%, down from 11%
The report also suggests that recent protests in Alexandra have cost the ANC dearly. Despite efforts to frame the demonstrations as a DA-problem, it seems a large number of voters have decided that the service delivery and housing issues in the township fall at the feet of the provincial government
The DA has eight days to close a six-point gap, according to their own research. It may be a big ask, but if Donald Trump can chase down 12 points within two weeks left against Hilary Clinton in 2016, anything can happen.