Thu. Jul 18th, 2019

2019 Elections: ANC’s majority support in Eastern Cape could be under threat

2019 elections eastern capeWe are in the final stretch leading up to the 2019 elections. With only days left, the provincial ballot promises to be closely contested.

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A record number of 48 parties are contesting the provincial elections, with 26 of those competing for votes in the Eastern Cape. Only 18 parties competed for Eastern Cape votes in the 2014 provincial elections.

Approximately 770 000 new voters were added to the voters’ roll this year, bringing to the total number of registered voters in South Africa to 26 727 921, however, the Eastern Cape is one of the more interesting contests in the upcoming elections.

The province is historically an ANC stronghold. That said, recent incidents in the Nelson Mandela Bay Metro highlights how voters may be getting tired of waiting for service delivery in the Eastern Cape.

ANC faces competition from opposing parties

The Eastern Cape will see some percentage of the 3 360 584 registered voters taking to the polls next Wednesday, and voter turnout could become important in the outcome.

It’s likely that turnout in urban areas will increase, which could also see the ANC lose some ground in the provincial results. Despite the EFF’s growth, the United Democratic Movement is likely to increase its support.

The UDM received 6.16% of the provincial vote in 2014. They could benefit from the fact that the EFF and DA have made a mess of their attempted coalitions.

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The DA received 16.2% support in 2014, but that figure is expected to grow by an additional 9.7% this year. The EFF received 3.48% support during the 2014 elections, with a 3.62% growth expected for the 2019 elections.

The other wildcard in the province will be the emergence of the Alliance for the Transformation of All (ATA). The party represents the taxi industry and could dilute the vote. Or, even surprise everyone and win a significant number of votes in its first try at contesting a provincial election.

Eastern Cape provincial legislature

MarkData’s survey shows however that the ANC could lose as much 8% of the 70.09% majority they enjoyed in 2014. The data predicts that the ANC’s loss will be the EFF and DA’s win despite their botched coalitions in the province.

Any party wishing to gain control of the Eastern Cape provincial legislature has to receive a majority in the seats. At present, the Eastern Cape has 63 seats.

The ANC currently has the majority rule in the Eastern Cape with 45 of the 63 seats. DA follows with 10 seats, UDM with four seats, EFF with two seats, and COPE and AIC with a seat each.

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