Wed. Jan 27th, 2021

2019 Elections: ANC majority thrown into doubt following latest polls

2019 Elections opinion pollsSurely not? The ANC’s long-standing majority is in the balance, according to two of the latest opinion polls from IPSOS and the IRR on the 2019 Elections.

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The tooth-and-nail battle for votes ahead of the 2019 Elections is entering its final week. All major and minor political parties (48 of them in total) are part of the last-gasp scramble to get voters on board with their messages. However, it seems like the ANC – who have earned a majority of the vote in every election since 1994 – are on the ropes.

Both IPSOS and the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) have released their latest opinion polls ahead of the crucial vote next Wednesday. Each opinion poll shows dwindling support for the governing party, and the IRR’s research even puts the ANC below the 50% mark.

2019 Elections: Latest opinion polls

IPSOS: Nervy times for the ANC and DA

Let’s take a look at the IPSOS results first. In conjunction with Africa Check, the pollsters surveyed 3 600 South Africans in door-to-door interviews over the month of April. They’ve produced two sets of data: One which features all registered voters in the country, and one based on the projected 71% turnout.

The ANC will be hoping that the light-blue bars on the graph are the true reflection of the nation’s mood, as they poll 61%. But based on their data for all registered voters, the ruling party could be seen as 5% less favourable. In both scenarios, they would maintain a majority, but the latter would come with little room for manoeuvre.

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Photo: IPSOS

The IPSOS research doesn’t really do the DA any favours, either. In either outcome, they are projected to take less than 20% of the national vote. The EFF are hovering around the 10% mark, which would signal an impressive gain for the red berets in only their second election campaign.

It’s also worth nothing that almost 10% of respondents did not express their political choices. Their input – which could be swayed over the next eight days – may change the landscape completely.

IRR: ANC could lose their majority in 2019 Elections

Now, the research carried out by the IRR is an eyebrow-raiser – it predicts that the ANC could plummet below the 50% mark for the first time in 25 years, meaning they would have to form a coalition government to stay in power. This is another 5% decline in support for Ramaphosa’s party, and they’re projected to lose 12.6% of the vote from 2014.

There were 2 735 people interviewed in total for this poll – yet only 2.5% decided to keep their opinions to themselves. Apathy may be setting in for some (non)voters however, as 2.4% declared they would not cast a ballot:

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Photo: IRR

The poll is slightly more favourable towards the DA, despite losing 0.5% of the support they were said to have in February. They aren’t the only opposition who are benefiting from the ANC’s misfortune, according to this data: The EFF are on course to push the 15% barrier, after absorbing a surge of support in the past two months.

With South Africa’s proportional representation system, every 0.25% of the vote earned by a political party gets them one seat in a Parliament of 400 representatives. Here’s what the National Assembly could look like if IPSOS or IRR have got their facts right:

How Parliament would look under IPSOS’ poll

(Based on all registered voters taking part)

  • ANC – 228
  • DA – 61
  • EFF – 38
  • IFP – 8
  • FF+ – 3
  • Others – 12
  • Seats undecided – 50

How Parliament would look under the IRR’s poll:

  • ANC – 198
  • DA – 85
  • EFF – 60
  • IFP – 12
  • FF+ – 7
  • ACDP – 6
  • UDM – 3
  • Cope, National Freedom Party and Pan Africanist Congress – one seat each.
  • Good, ATM, Agang – 0
  • Seats undecided – 25

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