Sun. Sep 15th, 2019

The ZAR hopeful for positive news – internationally and locally

There are plenty of worldwide catalysts this week that could drive the Rand’s value.

the zar hopeful for positive news internationally and locally 1024x683 - The ZAR hopeful for positive news – internationally and locally

This Rand report is brought to you by Sable International

The Rand was trading at R18.39 to the Pound
at the start of the week after declining 1.4% in the week before.

This week, the ZAR is likely to be driven
by the value of the US Dollar (which is negatively correlated to the Rand), the
release of South Africa’s second quarter GDP numbers and current account data.

Global risk appetite must also be considered. The Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI data came in better than expected – offering emerging currencies some respite. With the US-China trade war still ongoing, any new information would cause volatility across major emerging currencies.

6df63eac 2019 09 03 the rand report - The ZAR hopeful for positive news – internationally and locally

Tuesday sees the release of South Africa’s
second quarter GDP numbers. In the first quarter of the year, the country’s GDP
contracted by 3.2%, another contraction would imply that the country is going
through a recession. Market analysts have tipped the GDP to come out at 2.4%.
The deficit of current account, which will be released on Friday morning, is
expected to have contracted from R142.5 billion to R134.5 bn. Any divergences
from these forecasts will likely cause volatility.

This Friday, the US will be releasing its
jobs data. It’s expected that 162,000 jobs were added to the US workforce.
Should the number come in lower than what is forecast, it could give some
relief to the Rand.

Market
event calendar

Tuesday
3 September

  • SA GDP growth rate (second
    quarter)
  • US manufacturing PMI (August)

Wednesday
4 September

  • AU GDP growth rate (second
    quarter)
  • US balance of trade (July)

Thursday
5 September

  • AU balance of trade (July)

Friday
6 September

  • US non-farm payrolls (August)
  • SA current account (second
    quarter)

-Dean Reich

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *