Thu. Jul 18th, 2019

Mayweather versus elections 2019 – how to invest after the dust settles

The match lasted the full 12 rounds, it was generally uneventful and it was decided on points without any spectacular knockout.

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I had a strong sense of déjà vu over the weekend: the results of the elections took me right back to May 2015, and the famous boxing match between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao.

This fight was one of the most anticipated events in boxing history, and was given the grandiose name of Fight of the Century. Mayweather earned more than $200 million dollars for one night’s work, but the broadcasters and fans were disappointed.

The match lasted the full 12 rounds, it was generally uneventful and it was decided on points without any spectacular knockout.

South Africans may feel equally deflated now that our election results are out: Gauteng is once again in the hands of the ANC, where they scraped through with 50,2%, and so is KZN with 54,2%, while the DA retained the Western Cape with 55,5% of the vote.

Also read – South African elections 2019: Results and investments

Looking at investments post-2019 elections

From an investment point of view, however, stability and a lack of surprises are a good thing. So let us do something slightly boring and look at that which stayed the same:

  1. We had successful elections. There is some concern about the competence of the IEC, but for once the media and most political parties are on the same team, and there will definitely be pressure on the IEC to improve.
  2. Voter turnout was satisfactory and people participate in the democratic process. It is true that turnout has dropped once again, but this is in line with what happens in the rest of the world, and the three closely contested provinces (Gauteng, KZN, Western Cape) all had a voter turnout of more than 66%.
  3. The four-percent-trend again applied to the performance of the ANC, and they achieved more or less 58%, as we predicted in the previous article. This should give Ramaphosa a mandate to continue his reforms. It is interesting to note that the value of the rand hardly changed during the last few days.
  4. The EFF continued to grow at a moderate pace, while the DA, IFP, VF+ and other smaller parties remain a big market-friendly opposition.

So how do we invest? We do like Mayweather did – we are in this for the long game. So make sure that you have a diversified portfolio. And if you kept some money on the side to invest after the elections, diversify over time by gradually filtering it into the stock market. Personally, I will be acquiring some Satrix FINI this week.

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