Mon. Apr 22nd, 2019

Brexit remains the centre of attention

Moody’s, US-China talks and Eskom are all back in the news this week.

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This Rand report is brought to you by Sable International

Local investors and citizens breathed a
sigh of relief at Moody’s decision to delay South Africa’s credit rating
assessment. The delay gave the Rand a welcome boost at the beginning of last
week.

However, reports that the government is once again considering plans to provide further financial support to Eskom is likely to place the Rand under pressure once more. Economists have predicted that the financial bailout for Eskom could be the tipping point that will see Moody’s downgrade South Africa to junk status.

3330203d rand report graph 09 04 2019 - Brexit remains the centre of attention

International news is going to be the key driver for the Rand this week
as there isn’t much in terms of domestic data publications. The Rand is likely
to be dented slightly by weak mining and manufacturing output data for
February, which is to be released on Thursday.

The Brexit deadline was extended once more
to 12 April. Theresa May and EU leaders will be meeting at a special summit on
Wednesday to discuss Brexit. The meeting takes place just two days before the extended
deadline.

Emerging markets will remain optimistic over
US-China trade talks after US president Donald Trump indicated that a deal with
China might be revealed in the next four weeks.

Event market
calendar

Tuesday 9
April

  • EU-China summit: The 21st
    EU-China summit is focused on achieving a balanced relation, which ensures fair
    competition and equal market access for both China and Europe.

Wednesday
10 April

  • UK Balance of Trade and GDP: It
    is expected that the Balance of Trade will be halved from £-3.8B to £-1.2B. The
    GDP results are expected to drop by half a percent to 0.0%.
  • European Council Meeting:
    Theresa May will be meeting with EU leaders to discuss Brexit.

Thursday 11
April

  • South Africa Mining and Manufacturing
    Data: Both are expected to dip from January and will cause the Rand to lower in
    value in the short-term.

Friday 12
April

  • Brexit deadline: Once more the Brexit deadline will try to find a way for the UK to make a clean exit from Europe.
  • China Balance of Trade, Exports and Imports: Positive data will impact the Rand, including other emerging markets.

-Dean Reich

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